Global Logistics Alert: The Panama Canal Crisis and Record Port Congestion

In late summer 2026, global container shipping is under twofold pressure: climatic and geopolitical. The Panama Canal, hit by a severe drought linked to the strong El Niño phenomenon, is once again cutting its transit capacity, while congestion at global ports has surpassed the peak levels recorded during the pandemic. Both forces are combining to reshape logistics costs and international trade routes.

The Panama Canal: Drought Deepens the Cut in Transit Capacity

The Panama Canal, a key artery connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, is facing a severe water crisis. Rainfall in the watershed remains below forecast due to the strong El Niño, which has lowered the levels of the Gatún and Alhajuela artificial lakes, the main freshwater sources for operating the locks. According to data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 81% probability that El Niño will reach "very strong" intensity between October and December 2026, and it could last until the boreal spring of 2027.

Faced with the worsening situation, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has announced new restrictions. Starting September 3, 2026, the number of daily slots available at the Neopanamax locks will be reduced from an average of 10 to 9, while from September 15, slots at the Panamax locks will drop from 26 to 23. In total, daily vessel transits will fall from the current 36 to 32 by mid-September. The ACP has stated that these measures are necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of operations and to preserve water resources for human consumption.

This new adjustment comes amid high demand. The geopolitical crisis in the Persian Gulf has diverted much of the energy traffic, especially liquefied natural gas and oil, from the Gulf of Mexico toward Asia, increasing pressure on Canal slots. As a result, auction prices to secure a priority slot have soared, exceeding one million dollars in some cases and even reaching 4 million dollars.

Meanwhile, congestion at global ports has hit record figures. At the end of August 2026, the capacity of container ships waiting to berth worldwide exceeded 4.3 million TEU, a figure that breaks the all-time record of 4 million TEU set during the pandemic in 2022. This congestion represents 12.6% of the total global container ship fleet.

The recent typhoons in East Asia, which have severely affected China's main ports, are the primary immediate trigger of this breakdown. Operational disruptions and misalignments in vessel schedules have frozen an enormous amount of capacity at anchorages. Delays are estimated to have caused the loss of approximately 1.7 million TEU of effective capacity in the market. Vessel punctuality barely reaches 60%-65%, and the average delay is 5 to 5.5 days, well above the pre-pandemic average of 3 to 4 days.

This strain on capacity has been passed directly on to freight rates. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has risen 156% since the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The S&P Global Platts container freight index reached 7,565 dollars per FEU on August 21, its highest level of the year. On transpacific routes, freight from Asia to the U.S. West Coast is around 7,400 dollars per FEU, while, although rates on the Asia-Europe route have edged down, they remain 60% higher than in May.

This capacity shortage is also reflected in the ship chartering market, where demand remains high and the supply of available vessels is limited, pushing carriers' operating costs upward.

Double Crisis: The Pressure on Global Supply Chains

The reduction in Panama Canal transits and global port congestion are not isolated phenomena. Their combination aggravates a situation already strained by diversions and delays. Any drop in the Canal's efficiency translates into delays for vessels bound for the U.S. East Coast and Latin America, which in turn add to the congestion already present at ports. A critical aspect of the Panama Canal crisis is its potentially long-lasting nature: the possibility that the strong El Niño will extend into 2027 suggests that the restrictions could become the "new normal." For global supply chains that depend on this route, adjusting routes, preparing contingency plans, and absorbing higher logistics costs appears to be an inevitable scenario.